04.2021 Macro View

Equity

Euro Stoxx 50 looks overbought, small correction expected. 100% of my exposure to European equity has been hedged.

Nasdaq 100 is back to its maximums and approaching the overbought area. The slightly higher than expected inflation rate is going to sustain the US market for a little longer, but I do expect a correction soon. I stay cautious and away from "long duration" stocks which are the ones expected to suffer the most the moment the market's focus comes back to the treasury yield.

SPX continues to record highs everyday. I don't want to be too pessimistic but a correction is required to cool down investor's optimism and might coincide with a possible under performing earning season.

Forex

EURUSD pulled back on 1.19. It might be a second opportunity to take a long position in USD.

Fixed Income

10yr US treasury yield pulled back on 1.67, but it seems that its march to 2% is starting over. It might suggest a good month for financial companies. Also, its a good opportunity to sell futures on US treasuries.

Oil

BRENT is yet ranging at 63$/bbl but I believe that by the end of the month can start over its upward trend and come back to 70$. Overall positive thoughts over oil companies.

Other economic indicators

USA

The US PMI continues to support an overall bullish view. The employment is a more controversial matter. From one side we have a rising Nonfarm payrolls number, from the other one we have a rising jobless claims. I struggle to find an unambiguous meaning.

Europe

The Euro Zone PMI is still supporting the European markets, while the unemployment rate registered a slight rise but yet nothing alarming. I personally prefer to stay market neutral until I don't see things clearly.


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